Population and Demography
pop_demog.RmdPopulation projections
site_file$population
Site-level population estimates are extracted at the pixel level from WorldPop1. We use the “Unconstrained individual countries 2000-2020 UN adjusted ( 1km resolution )” rasters.
Urban rural
Urban rural splits within administrative unit are defined using a threshold density of 1500 people per square km.
Population at risk
site_file$population$par_pf
site_file$population$par_pv
site_file$population$par
Population at risk from Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax or both are estimated by masking the total population raster by areas with active transmission (prevalence >0%) in year 20002.
Population growth and urbanisation
We provide annual population projections to 2050 using UN data on total population growthunwpp? combined with UN projections of the levels of urbanisation3. We use these projections to produces estimates of the rate of urban and rural growth (relative to a baseline year) which are then applied to our spatial-unit population estimates. Final estimates are rescaled to ensure that population total match UN totals.
Demography
Population demographics (age structure) are defined over time for each site. Demography is obtained using the peeps R package, and are based on data from the UN WPPunwpp?.
Mortality rates are specified for neonates (0-30 days), young infants (31 days - 1 year), older infants (1 year - 5 years) and then in five year age bands.