| Basic reproductive number, R0 |
3.0 |
Estimate from Europe, Flaxman et al
|
| Mean Incubation Period |
4.6 days |
Estimated to be 5.1 days (Linton et al.; Li et al. The last 0.5 days are included in the I_MILD and I_CASE states to capture pre-symptomatic infectivity |
| Generation Time |
6.75 days |
Bi et al |
| Mean Duration in I_MILD |
2.1 days |
Incorporates 0.5 days of infectiousness prior to symptoms; with parameters below ~95% of all infections are mild. In combination with mean duration in I_CASE this gives a mean generation time as above |
| Mean Duration in I_CASE |
4.5 days |
Mean onset-to-admission of 4 days. Values in the literature range from 1.2 to 12 days. Includes 0.5 days of infectiousness prior to symptom onset |
| Mean Duration of Hospitalisation for non-critical Cases (I_HOSP) if survive |
9 days |
Median value from five studies (Sreevalsan-Nair et al., Haw et al., Hawryluk et al., Oliveira et al., South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium). Range from 8-15 days. |
| Mean Duration of Hospitalisation for non-critical Cases (I_HOSP) if die |
9 days |
As above |
| Mean duration of Critical Care (I_ICU) if survive |
14.8 days |
Mean duration in ICU of 13.3 days Pritchard et al.. Ratio of duration in critical care if die: duration in critical care if survive of 0.75 and 60.1% probability of survival in ICU (ICNARC report, from UK data, 16 October 2020) |
| Mean duration of Critical Care (I_ICU) if die |
11.1 days |
Mean duration in ICU of 13.3 days Pritchard et al.. Ratio of duration in critical care if die: duration in critical care if survive of 0.75 and 60.1% probability of survival in ICU (ICNARC report, from UK data, 16 October 2020) |
| Mean duration of Stepdown post ICU (I_Rec) |
3 days |
Working assumption based on unpublished UK data |
| Mean duration of hospitalisation if require ICU but do not receive it and die |
1 day |
Working assumption |
| Mean duration of hospitalisation if require ICU but do not receive it and survive |
7.4 days |
Working assumption (Half duration of ICU and survive) |
| Mean duration of hospitalisation if require Oxygen but do not receive it and die |
4.5 days |
Working assumption (Half duration of Oxygen and die) |
| Mean duration of hospitalisation if require Oxygen but do not receive it and survive |
4.5 days |
Working assumption (Half duration of ICU and survive) |
| Probability of death if require critical care but do not receive it |
95% |
Working assumption based on expert clinical opinion |
| Probability of death if require hospitalisation but do not receive it |
60% |
Working assumption based on expert clinical opinion |