Calibration

library(foresite)

Calibrating EIR

Each site must be calibrated to estimate the baseline EIR. This procedure is conducted twice, once for Plasmodium falciparum, once for Plasmodium vivax. We estimate EIR such that we best match site-level prevalence estimates from the last 10 years of available data (with more recent years weighted higher). Calibration is performed using the cali R package.

NOTE: sometimes the inputs and model outputs cannot be matched well to targets (for instance if intervention coverage increases and so does prevalence).

This produces a calibrated EIR estimate for each species for each site. Please note that matching prevalence estimates does not necessarily mean that site outputs will match case and death estimates from the world malaria report. In an ideal world these would be identical. Usually they are not due to differences in modelled prevalence incidence relationships and case reporting assumptions and adjustments.