MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London
This report uses data from the European Centre for Disease Control. These data are updated daily and whilst there may be a short delay, they are generally consistent with Ministry reports. These data are then used to back-calculate an ‘inferred number of COVID-19 infections’ using mathematical modelling techniques (see Report 12 for further details) to estimate the number of people that have been infected and to make short-term projections for future healthcare needs.
|Total Reported Cases||New Reported Cases||Total Reported Deaths||New Reported Deaths||Estimated \(R_t\)|
|165,618||3,201||2,096||44||1.04 (95% CI: 0.95-1.16)|
The figure below shows the cumulative reported deaths as a function of the time since the 10th death was reported. Dashed lines show the expected trajectory for different doubling times of the epidemic. For example, with a doubling time of 3 days, if there are currently a total of 20 deaths reported, we would expect there to be 40 deaths in total reported in 3 days-time, 80 deaths in 6 days-time, 160 deaths in 9 days-time etc. For most epidemics, in the absence of interventions, we expect a doubling time of 3-4 days for this disease.